Do Legislative Yuan Districts Favour the Kuomintang?

A great Ketagalan Media piece from December 2015 on how the Legislative Yuan elections work raised the possibility of redistricting to address imbalances in the number of residents in each of the 73 constituency seats around the country. The most populous district, Hsinchu County, had 396,492 registered voters as of early 2016, whereas as Lienchiang County (more commonly known as Matsu) had just 9,921. The common perception is that these imbalances, whether by accident or design, favour the Kuomintang. But is this true?

To examine this question I looked at the results from all three elections for which the current boundaries have been in place, and assigned each constituency to one of four categories. Those which have been won by either the KMT (or allies) or the DPP (or allies) in all three elections were designated “Deep Blue” and “Deep Green” respectively. Those in which two out of three had gone to the KMT side are “Light Blue”, and “Light Green” seats were won by the DPP side in two out of three elections. 2008 was a KMT landslide, 2012 was a narrower Pan-Blue win, and 2016 was of course a DPP landslide. This is admittedly a pretty crude method based on a small sample size, but it has the advantage of being quick and easy to measure.

Just eyeballing the list of constituencies (ordered from most to least number of eligible voters) it looks reasonably balanced:

Constituency 2016 2012 2008 Category Electors
Hsinchu County KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 396,492
Yilan DPP DPP KMT Light Green 357,077
Tainan 5 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 327,221
Hsinchu City DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 324,395
New Taipei 1 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 322,726
Taichung 5 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 321,452
Taipei 4 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 320,963
Tainan 3 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 318,142
Tainan 4 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 301,713
Keelung DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 298,947
Tainan 2 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 298,294
Taipei 3 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 289,911
Kaohsiung 3 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 289,344
Taichung 7 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 288,794
Taichung 2 KMT KMT NPSU Deep Blue 288,136
Taichung 4 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 287,435
Yunlin 2 DPP DPP KMT Light Green 283,296
New Taipei 4 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 282,373
New Taipei 8 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 282,028
Kaohsiung 8 DPP DPP KMT Light Green 281,637
New Taipei 11 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 281,608
Yunlin 1 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 279,736
Taoyuan 1 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 277,449
Taipei 1 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 275,449
New Taipei 2 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 274,711
Tainan 1 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 272,907
New Taipei 10 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 272,370
Taoyuan 2 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 271,280
Changhua 3 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 270,227
Taipei 2 DPP DPP KMT Light Green 268,464
Taoyuan 4 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 261,773
Changhua 4 DPP DPP KMT Light Green 260,906
Taoyuan 3 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 259,562
New Taipei 3 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 259,224
Taichung 6 DPP DPP KMT/PFP Light Green 258,303
Kaohsiung 2 DPP DPP KMT Light Green 256,424
Taoyuan 5 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 252,796
Taipei 8 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 252,360
New Taipei 12 NPP KMT KMT Light Blue 251,191
Kaohsiung 9 DPP KMT DPP Light Green 250,192
Taipei 7 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 248,887
Taipei 5 NPP KMT KMT Light Blue 248,868
Kaohsiung 4 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 248,774
Taoyuan 6 IND KMT KMT Light Blue 248,233
Changhua 1 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 247,505
Taipei 6 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 245,521
New Taipei 5 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 244,030
Taichung 3 NPP KMT KMT Light Blue 243,934
New Taipei 9 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 239,962
Kaohsiung 7 DPP DPP KMT Light Green 239,787
Changhua 2 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 237,921
Miaoli 2 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 232,151
Pingtung 1 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 228,120
New Taipei 7 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 224,631
Kaohsiung 1 DPP DPP KMT/PFP Light Green 224,630
Chiayi County 2 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 223,450
Kaohsiung 5 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 221,204
New Taipei 6 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 215,111
Pingtung 2 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 213,023
Taichung 1 DPP DPP KMT Light Green 211,316
Kaohsiung 6 DPP DPP KMT Light Green 210,687
Chiayi City DPP DPP KMT Light Green 208,988
Taichung 8 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 207,927
Miaoli 1 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 207,220
Nantou 2 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 204,977
Chiayi County 1 DPP KMT KMT Light Blue 201,665
Pingtung 3 DPP DPP DPP Deep Green 201,649
Hualien DPP KMT PFP/KMT Light Blue 198,114
Nantou 1 KMT KMT KMT Deep Blue 188,743
Taitung DPP DPP KMT Light Green 118,223
Kinmen KMT KMT IND Deep Blue 109,478
Penghu DPP DPP NPSU Light Green 83,154
Lienchiang KMT IND KMT Deep Blue 9,921

But let’s take a closer look. The mean number of electors across the 73 constituencies is 250,755, which could be considered an “ideal” district. The Blue mean (Deep and Light Blue seats) is 251,729 while the combined Green mean is 249,189 – both very close to the “ideal” number. However, if we consider just the safe seats, Deep Blue constituencies average 240,279 electors, while the mean in Deep Green districts is 266,477; 10.9% larger. These safe seats may constitute a better indication of possible gerrymandering.

A more thorough analysis would take into account winning margins and include results from other races (presidential, regional and local) in determining the “blueness” or “greenness” of each constituency, but you would need to control for registered Aboriginal voters (who don’t vote in the geographical constituencies). Also, the scale of the anti-KMT landslide in 2016 swept districts that were previously considered safe blue seats, like Hualien, Taichung 3, and Taipei 1.

Bearing in mind the limited dataset I’ve used, I think the answer to the title question (do the districts favour the KMT?) is “possibly, a little”. This shouldn’t be a surprise, as the KMT was in the driving seat when these districts were drawn up in 2005. However, the effect is not that large, and the overall numbers are distorted by tiny Lienchiang, which is probably the safest blue seat in the country.

Towards Redistricting?

There are two significant rules in place for determining constituency boundaries. Firstly, each county and municipality* must have at least one representative each. Secondly, and I am unsure whether this is actually written down anywhere, constituencies cannot cross county or municipality borders. The first rule in particular explains why voters in Taiwan’s small offshore counties are overrepresented. What would redistricting look like if both of these rules were dropped? That’s something for a possible future post.

If you want to play with the numbers yourself, you can download my spreadsheet below. Original data was sourced from the Central Election Commission.

2008-16 LY district electors and results

*Municipality here includes the nine cities which are governed independently of Taiwan’s county system.

Names in Taiwan: Two, three, four or more characters?

Anyone who has spent time in Taiwan knows that most people have three characters in their names. Usually the first character is the family name, followed by either a generational name and given name each with one character, or a two-character given name. I’ll call this format FGG (F for family, G for given/generational name).

It is possible, however, to have more or less than three characters in a name. Two-character names, while not as common as in China, are common enough that you will encounter them on a fairly regular basis. In the modern era these are all in the format FG. Four-character names seem to be a bit rarer. There are a number of two-character family names – like Sima, Ouyang, and Shangguan – which together with a two-character given name result in four characters (FFGG). There are also what I call double-barrelled names – like Huang Chen, Wu Jian, and Yang Gao – which are two single-character family names joined together. These are sometimes taken on marrying, usually but not always by women. With a two-character given name the format for these names is SFGG (S for spouse’s family name). Usually these double-barrelled names are not passed to the next generation, but there are exceptions like the Chang Liao family, a Hakka dynasty whose members include the current DPP legislator for Taichung 4, Chang Liao Wan-chien, and KMT Taichung city councillor Chang Liao Kui-chuan 張廖貴專.

The Dataset

I wanted to look at how prevalent these different kinds of names were, so I grabbed a dataset from Taiwan’s Central Election Commission. The data includes all the registered candidates for the following elections:

  • Legislative Yuan (1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016)
  • Special Municipality councils (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014)
  • County and Provincial City councils (1998, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2014)

I chose this data because it was easily accessible and represents a reasonable sample size. I left out the Aboriginal districts because I’m planning a separate post on Aboriginal names. The first pass yielded 11,569 names, but as candidates – especially successful ones – tend to stand in more than one election, the list was whittled down to 6,368 once duplicates and corrupt values [enter your own politician joke here] were removed.

There are a couple of issues with using election data rather than a more representative sample. Firstly, certain kinds of names are associated with certain ethnolinguistic groups, and it’s possible that that group is over- or underrepresented in electoral candidates. Secondly, I expect some degree of overrepresentation of “double-barrelled” family names among political candidates. Why? Some candidates add the family name of a more famous spouse/parent to increase voter recognition.

Character Count Frequency

So what can we discover from this list? First, let’s look at character count frequency.

Number of characters Occurrences Percentage of total
2 107 1.68%
3 6139 96.40%
4 120 1.88%
5 1 0.02%
15 1 0.02%

If we exclude the two Ouyangs mentioned above, then 96.37% of our sample have three-character names. I couldn’t devise an easy way to check whether there are any instances of SFG names, i.e. a single-character given name added to a double-barrelled family name, so there may be a few of them in among the more typical FGG names.

Two-character Family Names

There are six instances of Ouyang and one of Shangguan in the data. The Shangguan and four of the Ouyangs are followed by two-character given names, while two of the Ouyangs have just a single-character given name afterwards.

Double-barrelled names

Subtracting the five instances of two-character surnames from the four-character names, we have 115 double-barrelled names. In testing my supposition about the gender of such names, I note that just 9 of the 115 entries are listed as male candidates. Taiwanese politics has traditionally been a male-dominated exercise, so it makes sense that most of the people adding a character for name recognition are women – older politicians tend to be men, and sons of famous male politicians already carry the same family name. In the full data only 21.64% of the candidates are women, but 92.17% of the candidates with double-barrelled names are women.

Wandering off on a tangent for a minute, one of the men, Shì Yáng Wùkōng 釋楊悟空, has practically the same name as Shi Wukong (the Tang dynasty monk who provided the inspiration for Sun Wukong, the Monkey King from Journey to the West). He added the character 釋 to his original name Yáng Wùkōng 楊悟空. 釋 is short for 釋迦牟尼 Shìjiāmóuní, a transliteration of Siddhartha (Gautama), the historical Buddha, and a name used by Buddhist monks in place of their original family name. Unfortunately when he stood in Hualien in 2012 his coreligionists failed to back him and he polled just 1.52% of the vote. He has now reverted to plain old Yang Wùkōng, and stood as such in the same district in 2016, pulling an even smaller 1.14% of the vote.

Longer names

Two candidates had names longer than four characters. The first, Lǚ Fànjiāng Hǎomèi 呂范姜好妹, seems to have added the suffix Hǎomèi 好妹 (“good little sister”) as a sobriquet to increase her memorability. The second person is [deep breath] Huáng Hóngchéng Táiwān Āchéng Shìjiè Wěirén Cáishén Zǒngtóng 黃宏成台灣阿成世界偉人財神總統, which would translate roughly as “Huang Hongcheng, Taiwan’s A-Cheng, Great Man of the World, Gold of Wealth, President”. And in case you were in any doubt as to the eccentricity of the man, here’s a video of his policy presentation (each candidate gets twelve minutes on local TV to set out their platform):

A trying day in the office for the sign language interpreter. On the strength of this performance, 2,037 Chiayi citizens cast their ballots for Mr Huang in the 2016 Legislative Yuan race (1.48% of the total).

List of Taiwanese Municipalities and Counties

From time to time I need a quick reference for the twenty-two municipalities and counties of Taiwan. At the bottom of this post you can download a spreadsheet with all of the data I have collected on each of the regions. In everyday use these are the top-level divisions within the country (the old “province” concept is effectively dead). The places in this data are divided into three categories for administrative purposes:

Special municipality

The biggest and richest of Taiwan’s administrative areas, the direct-controlled municipalities have large populations, strong economies, and big budgets. Taipei was the first city to be awarded this status, in 1967, followed by Kaohsiung in 1979. There are now six special municipalities:

  • Kaohsiung
  • New Taipei
  • Taichung
  • Tainan
  • Taipei
  • Taoyuan

Provincial city

The provincial cities are equivalent to counties in terms of political and economic significance. As more cities have become direct-controlled municipalities the number of provincial cities has dwindled to the current three. The name “provincial” is a colonial hangover from when provinces were a thing in ye olde Republicke of China (kids, ask your grandparents).

  • Keelung
  • Hsinchu City
  • Chiayi City

County

The thirteen remaining counties tend to be more less densely populated and less significant both politically and economically. They include the three island counties: Kinmen, Penghu, and tiny Lienchiang (Matsu).

  • Changhua
  • Chiayi County
  • Hualien
  • Hsinchu County
  • Kinmen
  • Lienchiang
  • Miaoli
  • Nantou
  • Penghu
  • Pingtung
  • Taitung
  • Yilan
  • Yunlin

What’s in the file?

For each of the twenty-two regions I’ve listed the following information:

  • ISO 3166-2:TW code
  • Official name
    • English
    • Hanzi (traditional Chinese characters)
    • Mandarin (Hanyu Pinyin)
    • Taiwanese (POJ romanization)
    • Hakka (POJ romanization)
  • Classification (special municipality, provincial city, county)
  • Administrative capital
  • Subdivisions
    • Townships (for counties), county-controlled cities (for counties) and districts (for special municipalities and provincial cities)
    • Villages (the subdivision below townships, county-controlled cities, and districts)
    • Neighborhoods (the smallest subdivision in everyday use)
    • Legislative Yuan constituencies (there are 73 geographical constituencies in total)
  • Area (in km2)
  • Households (government-registered)
  • Population (as of March 2016)
  • Population density (in people per km2)
  • Chief executive
    • “English” name
    • Hanzi (traditional Chinese characters)
    • Political party

I’ll update the table from time to time. The most recent update was 3 May 2016.

Taiwanese cities and counties 2016-05